After a lengthy conversation with my mathematical advisor, it was determined that negative scores are less than ideal. Also there needs to be a way to track fanbase optimism in regards to team improvement or fall-off based on year over year improvement. To those ends, I am tweaking the formula in the following ways.
The negative modifier for past championships is being replaced with an expected win rate, which is seasons played/total championships won. If that number is greater than the number of teams in the league (30 for MLB, and NBA, 32 for NFL, and NHL) then the expected win rate is 30, or 32 respectively.
The other numbers are unaffected, but to apply that to the 3 teams already covered at this point, the Celtics are 2(18/79) making their index 0.456 at this step, the Yankees are 15(27/121) which is 3.347, and the Eagles are 0(5/91) which is 0 (defending champions will always be zero at this point).
Important note, expected win rate is (title drought) x (championships won/seasons played). it is then multiplied by the previous drought total. The only scores affected are the Yankees, 17×3.347=56.901, and the Celtics 2×0.456=0.911
The second addition is a year over year modifier, which is 1 minus the change in winning percentage to show the trend of team competitiveness. so if we take the Celtics 1-(.744-.780)= 1.036, and multiply that by their 0.911 from earlier, you get 0.944 as their misery index, the Yankees 1-(.580-.506)=0.926 times 56.901, and they have a 52.690 misery index, and the Eagles 1-(.823-.647)= 0.824, and that times 0 is still 0.
So to update things,
Celtics’ misery index is 0.944
Yankees’ misery index is 52.690
Eagles’ misery index is 0
There might be further tweaks in the future, but that’s where we are at right now.
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